3 health care scenarios for the president

Barack Obama and his team know the health care law will be the defining legislative accomplishment of his term.

But that doesn?t mean they want it to be the defining issue of the 2012 campaign.

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The Supreme Court, of course, has other ideas. Later this month, the Roberts Court is expected to rule on the Affordable Care Act. The justices? questions during arguments are a notoriously unpredictable guide but conventional wisdom predicts the law will at least be stripped of its keystone provision, the mandate that nearly every American buy their own health insurance. The court could even bring down the whole law.

Obama?s brain trust believes public opinion about the law is already locked in, and the decision is coming early enough in the cycle that it won?t have a huge impact on the race.

(See also: 10 best pro and con health care quotes)

?The election will be about the economy. Period. Health care only matters in the context of the larger economy,? a top Democrat with close ties to the campaign told POLITICO.

The president?s aides have vehemently denied the administration is prepping for the law to be overturned or gutted ? and there?s good reason to downplay the notion they are scheming behind closed doors. Why antagonize the justices? Why admit the law might be unconstitutional?

But there is undeniable danger in the optics of an election-year health care defeat, just as there was in early 2010 when the bill teetered. Obama simply can?t allow health care to be a Jimmy Carter-in-the-desert moment, proof that he recklessly, fecklessly pushed through a doomed law at the expense of focusing on the economy and jobs.

So quiet plans are under way inside the administration under the cone, away from the prying eyes of the press, advocates and Hill aides, according to people close to the situation.

These are the three main scenarios Obama is likely gaming out ? the ugly, the bad and the good ? in that order.

Chaos: Mandate struck down, other parts preserved

Many SCOTUS watchers think one of the most likely scenarios is that the court will toss out the individual mandate and keep the rest of the law. That would leave a lot of the popular pieces alone, like covering pre-existing conditions, eliminating the ?donut hole? gap for senior prescription benefits and letting young adults stay on their parents? health plans until age 26.

The polls seem to suggest public support for a hybrid solution. While 41 percent of voters surveyed by The New York Times/CBS poll this week said they want the whole law trashed, 51 percent either say they want just the mandate killed or the whole law upheld.

That jibes with years of polling showing that a la carte parts of the bill ? especially banning discrimination based on pre-existing conditions ? remain far more popular than the law as a whole.

One small problem: It?s lousy policy, one that Democrats say is a recipe for political confusion and flawed policy that virtually guarantees that the popular stuff in the law won?t work.

That mean, old mandate everybody hates? It pays for all the goodies everybody loves.

There?s another scenario that?s considered a good bet. The court could knock out the mandate and also strip out the pre-existing condition coverage, since it wouldn?t work anyway once the mandate is gone. That?s what the Obama administration says the court should do if it gets rid of the mandate.

Either way, for Obama?s team, a split verdict would be the worst of all worlds: a phantom law on the books that energizes tea party Republicans who want it dead.

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